This map shows how American states voted in the last three competitive Democratic Party presidential primaries and caucuses. In 2008, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were the top two candidates. In 2016, Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton were the top two candidates. In 2020, Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden were the top two candidates. Let’s review the top three combinations: Biden-Clinton-Obama, Biden-Clinton-Clinton, and Biden-Sanders-Obama, as well as Sanders-Sanders-Obama.
Biden-Clinton-Obama
This combination features the three candidates who eventually won: Biden in 2020, Clinton in 2016, and Obama in 2008. The states that voted for all three of these candidates were primarily in the Southern region of the United States. These Southern states have large African American populations, which tends to vote heavily Democratic. Barack Obama’s candidacy in 2008 energized and mobilized many African American voters, leading to strong Democratic support in these states. Similarly, both Biden and Clinton had substantial support from African American voters over Bernie Sanders in their respective elections. African American voters often prioritize pragmatic considerations when choosing candidates, leading to support for Biden and Clinton.
Biden-Clinton-Clinton
The Joe Biden, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton combination features the three candidates preferred by the Democratic establishment. There is not a huge regional correlation between these states. Clinton’s candidacy in both 2016 and 2020 represented a continuation of Democratic Party policies and priorities, appealing to a broad base of Democratic voters across various regions. Biden’s victory in 2020 further solidified this establishment preference within the party, as he garnered support from a wide range of Democratic voters.
Biden-Sanders-Obama
States in the Northern region, particularly those in the Northwest and the Midwest, often have a more progressive-leaning electorate. Bernie Sanders, known for his progressive platform, resonated strongly with voters in these states. In these states, the percentage of Democratic voters that are White is higher than other regions of the country. Northern states often have higher levels of education and income, factors that are correlated with Democratic Party affiliation among White voters. It is important to note that the 2020 race essentially ended early and many voters just voted for Biden since his candidacy was inevitable.
Sanders-Sanders-Obama
This is the most progressive and anti-establishment group of picks. Just Vermont, North Dakota, Utah, and Colorado voted for these candidates in the last three competitive primaries. Vermont is Bernie Sanders’s home state, so it is no surprise he won the state twice. The Democratic voters in Utah and Colorado tend to be particularly progressive. Interestingly enough, while North Dakota’s democrats voted for the anti-establishment candidates, while South Dakota voted for Biden and Clinton.
